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This page contains summaries and performance analysis on all the predictions ("calls") that I've made related to specific stocks or asset classes. These calls were made in either the LGR Analytics Newsletter (and accompanying research reports), articles written for Seeking Alpha, in-person presentations for the Boston College Investment Club, or other events.

The predictions are separated into three groups; Short-Term, Intermediate-Term, and Long-Term. "Short-Term" relates to the next 1-12 months, "Intermediate-Term" relates to the next 1-3 years, and "Long-Term" relates to anything longer than 3 years (usually the next 5 years).

Each prediction will contain the following information; the name of the security/asset class, the date that the prediction was made, the specific time length for the prediction, whether it is a "long" or "short" prediction, the security's price when the prediction was made, the ideal entry/exit price for the investment, an approximate price target (or expected percentage return), the prediction's performance since it was made (with chart of security in real time below), and a link (or short message) about where you can find more of my analysis and reasoning behind the prediction.

I will record the results of each prediction, after the specified time period expires, and I often update the page to show each security's performance since the prediction was made. Recording my results will help me gauge my performance over time, by which I hope to improve.

My goal: transparency over management decisions, and accountability for results, to generate profitable investment ideas and discussion. I encourage readers to ask me questions about predictions, voice their own opinions, and describe their own predictions. If you would like more information, please contact me through my website.


SHORT-TERM PREDICTIONS

(This section is for predictions with a 1-12 month period before expiration)

Name Of Security/Asset Class: iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE+ BATS): TLT

Date Prediction Was Made: May 26, 2014

Long or Short: Long (after a quick dip)

Length Of Prediction: 9 months (approximately)

Price Target: No price target was given, because my prediction was more of a general prediction for the asset class.

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $112.27 (opening price on May 27, 2014)

Ideal Entry Price: No specific entry price was given in the prediction, but $110-$111 region was a sufficient "dip"

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare TLT's current price to the $110-$111 recommended entry region.

More Information: The following information is directly copied from Issue 12 of my Newsletter: "Long-term bonds (20+ year maturity) will decline in price for approximately the next 1-3 months. I believe that the decline will begin at some point in the next three weeks. However, I believe that long-term bonds will then rise, after the “dip” in price, for the next six through nine months. I believe this would be short-term bullish for the S&P 500 (1-3 months) and intermediate-term bearish for the S&P 500 (6-9 months)."


Name Of Security/Asset Class: The S&P 500 Large Cap Index (or the ETF: SPY)

Date Prediction Was Made: Initially made on April 10, 2014 and then re-iterated on May 26, 2014

Long or Short: Short (bearish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 3-6 months (approximately)

Price Target: I predicted a 10-15% correction would take place in next 3-6 months

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: 1,902.01 (S&P 500 Index's opening value on May 27, 2014)

Ideal Entry Price: No specific entry price was given in the prediction

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare the S&P 500's current value to its value on the day that my prediction was made.

More Information: This prediction was pretty much the entire thesis of the "Write-Up" section in the 12th Issue of my Newsletter. My prediction was that in the next 3-6 months (approximately) a 10-15% correction would take place in the S&P 500 Index. That would mean that the S&P 500 would experience a 10-15% decline (or "drawdown") from its all-time closing high, and that would take place at some point in a 3-6 months period after the prediction was made. This prediction does NOT mean that I thought the S&P 500 would decline 10-15% in the 3-6 months following the point that I made the prediction, because it is extremely difficult to call an exact top in the market, however it does mean that I believe that a 10-15% correction (from top to bottom) will occur at some point in the next 3-6 month time period.


INTERMEDIATE-TERM PREDICTIONS

(This section is for predictions with a 1-3 year period before expiration)

Name Of Security/Asset Class: Life Time Fitness Inc. (NYSE: LTM)

Date Prediction Was Made: March 17, 2014 and Reiterated On August 13, 2014

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 3 years in initial pitch then 12 months in reiterated pitch

Price Target: Reiterated outlook and gave a price target of $53.00 (34% higher than $39.55)

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $48.49 (LTM's opening price on March 18, 2014) and reiterated at $39.55 (LTM's closing price on August 13, 2014).

Ideal Entry Price: $48.49 and then $39.55 for reiterated outlook

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare LTM's leveraged buyout price of $72.10 to my ideal entry price of $39.55.

More Information: I gave an "elevator style" pitch on LTM for the Boston College Investment Club. Although I gave the pitch on March 17th, I began buying shares of LTM, in my simulated portfolio, on January 31, 2014. I then reiterated my outlook on LTM in a Seeking Alpha PRO article (look below for link to article!), which was published on August 13, 2014.

The Powerpoint slides that I used to give my pitch can be downloaded by clicking the following link: Final Draft Of LTM Pitch Slides (In BCIC Presentation Format)

The script for my pitch can be downloaded by clicking the following link: Final Draft Of The Transcript For My Pitch On LTM For The BCIC Board Election.2

I also wrote a Seeking Alpha PRO article on the stock, which will be available to free (non-PRO) SA subscribers until approximately September 10, 2014. The article can be found HERE. In addition, I wrote a follow-up article on LTM after LTM's board announced that the company is considering converting its real estate assets into a REIT. That article can be found HERE.


Name Of Security/Asset Class: The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE: GBX)

Date Prediction Was Made: April 04, 2016

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 1 year

Price Target: 1-year upside price target of $33.00

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $26.83 (GBX's closing price on April 01, 2016).

Ideal Entry Price: $26.83, but in my report I wrote that it was possible that GBX could decline after its FQ2 2016 earnings report is released on April 05, 2016 and that "...investors may want to take a conservative approach and await the release of the FQ2 2016 earnings report. A more ideal entry price range to maximize GBX's conservative potential return/risk ratio is $24.00 - $26.00, because in that range GBX would have a potential return/risk ratio of between 1.4 to 1 and 3.0 to 1. Given how conservative my 1-year upside price target is intended to be, investors willing to accept a higher degree of risk could consider an entry at GBX's current price."

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare GBX's share price when I changed my outlook on the company in Volume II, Issue 7 to my ideal entry price of $26.83.

More Information: More information can be found in the Company Spotlight.


Name Of Security/Asset Class: Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG)

Date Prediction Was Made: Sent out article on HOG to everyone on Newsletter Listserv on October 13, 2014 (after hours)

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 1-2 years

Price Target: $68.00 (my 12-month price target)

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $56.49 (HOG's closing price on October 13, 2014)

Ideal Entry Price: HOG's opening price the following day (turned out to be $56.74)

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare HOG's current share price to my ideal entry price of $56.74.

More Information: This prediction was stated clearly in Volume I, Issue 18 of my Newsletter, which contains a full article on HOG. I also gave a pitch on HOG to the BC Investment Club on October 06, 2014. The full article (in PDF format) can be downloaded by clicking on this link: HOG Article (final for Newsletter). Likewise, the PowerPoint slides that I used in my pitch to the BC Investment Club can be downloaded by clicking on this link: HOG Pitch (final draft)

My bullish prediction had four main thesis points:

  1. HOG dominates the motorcycle industry; its 50%+ U.S. market share increased steadily over the past five years and is near its all-time high, and this increase is highest with all-important young and foreign customers.
  2. HOG leveraged the Great Recession through a major restructuring that significantly increased productivity and reduced costs, while continuing to return value to shareholders.
  3. Economic recovery and improving consumer confidence will lift HOG going forward, in both U.S. and foreign markets.
  4. HOG is currently trading at a discount to its historical average valuation multiples, providing significant upside for long term investors.

In addition to four main sections (one for each point of my investment thesis), the article I wrote has 13 subsections. Those subsections are as follows:


Name Of Security/Asset Class:  Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE: SIG)

Date Prediction Was Made: Sent out report on SIG to everyone on Newsletter Listserv on November 9, 2016 (after hours)

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 2 years

Price Target: $116.00 (my 2-year price target)

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $86.08 (SIG's closing price on November 9, 2016)

Ideal Entry Price: SIG's opening price the following day (turned out to be $86.75)

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare SIG's current share price to my ideal entry price of $86.75.

More Information: This prediction was stated clearly in Volume II, Issue 6 of my Newsletter, which contained a brief one-page investment overview report on SIG and a link to download a full stock pitch PowerPoint presentation on SIG.

My bullish prediction had three main thesis points:

  1. First, Signet has an excellent market position and should overcome industry growth concerns and continue gaining share going forward.
    • Signet holds the #1 market share position in the U.S., Canada and the UK and its 7.4% share of the total U.S. jewelry market has nearly doubled over the last 10 years and I expect this trend to continue.
    • Signet’s size is a significant competitive advantage, and it has the ability to spend more on advertising its products and opening new stores than any of its closest competitors. In addition, the fact that 50% of SIG’s sales are from weddings adds an extra layer of stability to its financial performance across any business cycle.
    • With a conservative projection that its U.S. sales will grow at a 2.2% CAGR over the next five years, while the market grows at 0.5%, Signet’s market share is projected to rise 70 bps to 8.1%.
  2. Second, Signet’s operating margins can expand faster than current consensus forecasts.
    • Signet acquired Zale in 2014, causing its operating margin to contract 200 bps the next year because of Zale’s significantly lower margins. However, expected synergies of $225 - $250 million and operational efficiency improvements at Zale will drive a significant increase in Signet’s total operating margin.
    • I project Signet’s total operating margin will return to its pre-acquisition level of 13.9% in FY 2018, which is 45 bps higher than consensus estimates and contributes to my EBITDA estimates also being above consensus.
  3. Third, optionality with the company’s in-house credit portfolio provides a win-win opportunity for investors.
    • Concern about Signet’s credit portfolio has grown over the last year.
    • Management is now considering monetizing the entire $1.6 billion credit portfolio despite the fact that its profit is at an all-time high. I project that if its credit portfolio was monetized, SIG would reap over $900 million in net proceeds. In the short term, monetizing the portfolio would likely boost SIG’s stock price, due to alleviated concerns and the aforementioned cash inflow, while in the long term offering in-house financing is a significant competitive advantage and contributor to both sales and profit growth.


    Name Of Security/Asset Class:  Williams Sonoma, Inc. (NYSE: WSM)

    Date Prediction Was Made: Sent out report on WSM to everyone on Newsletter Listserv on November 9, 2016 (after hours)

    Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

    Length Of Prediction: 1 year

    Price Target: $61.00 (my 1-year price target)

    Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $48.47 (WSM's closing price on November 9, 2016)

    Ideal Entry Price: WSM's opening price the following day (turned out to be $45.78)

    Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare WSM's current share price to my ideal entry price of $45.78.

    More Information: This prediction was made in Volume II, Issue 6 of my Newsletter, where Listserv subscribers were given the option of receiving a second stock pitch PowerPoint presentation on Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) that had been finalized on September 19, 2016.

    My bullish prediction had three main thesis points:

  1. High Quality Business Supports Growth
    • A strong multi-channel presence and exclusive products define WSM as a high quality business and position it for growth
    • Growth from internally developed brands and international markets support market share gains
  2. Overdone Margin Concerns
    • Supply chain and IT investments will help WSM efficiently manage inventory and reduce costs
    • WSM is well-positioned against pure play industry competitors and has overlooked earnings potential
  3. Attractive Valuation
    • Higher than expected growth rate and margins will drive consensus estimate outperformance
    • Attractive valuation relative to peers and historical trading multiples

Name Of Security/Asset Class: Time Inc. (NYSE: TIME)

Date Prediction Was Made: Sent out report on TIME to everyone on Newsletter Listserv on November 29, 2016 (after hours)

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 2 years

Price Target: $20.00 (my 2-year price target)

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $16.08 (TIME closing price on November 29, 2016) but report and pitch were finalized on November 23, 2016 when TIME's stock price closed at $13.85

Ideal Entry Price: TIME's opening price the following day (turned out to be $16.23)

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare TIME's current share price to my ideal entry price of $45.78.

More Information: The full edited research report on TIME can be downloaded by clicking here and the edited stock pitch PowerPoint presentation can be downloaded by clicking here.

My bullish prediction had three main thesis points:

  1. The market is pricing in an aggressive rate of decline for TIME’s revenue, yet I project only a slight decline in revenue through 2018 and then growth thereafter
  2. Margins have the ability to expand significantly, even in a minimal (or slightly negative) revenue growth scenario
  3. Substantial FCF generation supports TIME’s share price while also it to return money to shareholders and strengthen its balance sheet

LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS

(This section is for predictions with a 3 year+ period before expiration)

    Name Of Security/Asset Class: Gold (or the ETF: GLD)

Date Prediction Was Made: July 15, 2014

    Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

    Length Of Prediction: 3+ years

    Price Target: $186.00, which implies a gain of roughly 49%.

    Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $125.02 (GLD's opening price on July 16, 2014)

    Ideal Entry Price: $125.02

    Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare GLD's current share price to my ideal entry price of $125.02.

    More Information: More information about this prediction can be found in the "Write-up on Gold" section in Volume I, Issue 15 of my Newsletter. I predicted that gold will make a new high in the next 1-3 years (it would probably take 2+ years though). The full Write-up (from my Newsletter) can be found on Seeking Alpha as well. Here's a link to the article: "Gold Bottomed In 2013 And Is Now Headed Higher"


Name Of Security/Asset Class: Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE + BATS: LVS)

Date Prediction Was Made: July 31, 2014 (pre-market open)

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction)

Length Of Prediction: 5+ years

Price Target: In my article, I stated that LVS was 5% (or 5-10%) undervalued as of July 29, 2014, when LVS closed at $74.58. I believe that LVS will break it's current 52-week high (at $87.16) in approximately the next 12-18 months. Breaking that price point would result in a 17.69% return (from LVS's $74.06 opening price on July 31, 2014).

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $74.06 (LVS's opening price on July 31, 2014)

Ideal Entry Price: $74.06, but only for long-term oriented traders. I said that any further weakness in price should be seen as a buying opportunity. I believed that the ideal strategy would be to "average down" by setting designated price levels at which to buy additional shares (with limit orders) if LVS' price continued to decline. On July 31, 2014, I saw $72 as short-term support, the $68-$68.50 region as intermediate-term support, and $59-$59.50 as long-term support. In my opinion, all of those prices are great entry points for building a long position. However, that is subject to change as time goes on.

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare LVS' current share price to my ideal entry price of $74.06.

More Information: I wrote a full article on LVS in Volume I, Issue 16 of my Newsletter.

My bullish prediction had four main thesis points:

Point #1: The Resorts & Casinos industry is in an accelerated growth cycle, led by Macau. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) dominates the industry and is best positioned to benefit from this continued growth.

Point #2: Potential Japanese legalization of casinos offers a new and significant casino market with major growth potential, and LVS is well-positioned to take advantage.

Point #3: LVS outperforms its competitors through its “convention-based integrated resort business model" and its focus on the mass market, generating consistently high earnings growth and high margins.

Point #4: LVS currently trades at a discount to its long-term average valuation multiples, and its current share price offers an excellent long-term entry point.


Name Of Security/Asset Class: Flotek Indsutries Inc. (NYSE: FTK)

Date Prediction Was Made: Publicly released on June 02, 2015 (pre-market open), but privately released to Newsletter subscribers on May 31, 2015.

Long or Short: Long (bullish prediction).

Length Of Prediction: 5+ years.

Price Target: In my article, I stated that FTK was trading at roughly a 39% discount (as of May 31, 2015) to my 1-year price target of $16.00. Furthermore, I stated that my 2-year+ price target for FTK was $28.00, which implied that that FTK has upside potential of approximately 144% over the next 2-3 years.

Security's Price When Prediction Was Made: $11.66 (FTK's opening price on June 02, 2015).

Ideal Entry Price: $11.66, but only for long-term oriented investors. I said that any further weakness in price should be seen as a buying opportunity.

Prediction's Performance Since It Was Made: Compare FTK's current share price to my ideal entry price of $11.66.

I wrote a full article on FTK in Volume II, Issue I of my Newsletter.

My bullish prediction had five main thesis points:

Point #1: Strong financial health enables FTK to survive in the current commodity price environment.

Point #2: FTK demonstrates the best operational efficiency of its peer group in the industry.

Point #3: Strong demand for FTK's key products, particularly its "green" fracking fluids, will help it capture and defend market share and generate strong cash flow.

Point #4: Existing competitive advantages enable FTK to experience strong organic growth in both foreign and domestic markets.

Point #5: Current market valuation offers long-term upside potential to FTK's current share price.

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