This page provides an in-depth look at a single company that I analyzed and presented as a prediction, a stock pitch, and a published article. I provide below embedded (downloadable) documents, and links to articles that I've written, so as to provide access to additional information about the highlighted company.
My goal is to demonstrate the basis of my prediction regarding a specific stock, by providing the critical information analyzed for the decision. I also provide pitch materials created by myself and then used to perform a stock pitch that I gave in person.
A summary of all predictions can be found in the Predictions section of this website.
Current Company Spotlight:
More Information On GBX:
I wrote a full report on GBX for Volume II, Issue 4 of my Newsletter, which was published on April 04, 2016. I also published a post-earnings report on GBX for Volume II, Issue 5 of my Newsletter, which was published on April 21, 2016 (sent to subscribers on April 14th).
A PDF copy of my first report on GBX can be downloaded here: The Greenbrier Companies Inc - A Value Stock With An Unjustified Correlation To Oil
A PDF copy of my post-earnings report on GBX can be downloaded here: Understanding Greenbrier's Recent Rise and Price Target Update
My original investment thesis had four main points:
- The market has priced in a full cyclical decline in demand in the railcar manufacturing industry; this decline is unlikely to be as severe as the drop in GBX’s price indicates.
- GBX has a competitive advantage in product innovation and is diversified towards non-energy product lines that are seeing rising demand, and these factors will help it offset declining demand for energy-related railcars.
- A strong balance sheet and liquidity profile, coupled with a track record of operational excellence, will help GBX capitalize on all available opportunities and gain market share during the current industry contraction.
- GBX is trading at an attractive price from a value-oriented investor’s perspective, with the stock currently trading at a 23.0% discount to a conservative 1-year price target of $33.00.