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Post-Earnings Notes On Fitbit (FIT)

Yesterday, FIT reported Q4 2015 financial results and today the stock declined 20.8% and marked an intraday low of $12.97 (only $0.07 above the stock's all-time low of $12.90, on February 11th). The following financials from FIT's 8-K filing (found HERE), and the accompanying press release (found HERE), present an overview of the company's operating results for Q4 2015 and full-year 2015, and the company's guidance for Q1 2016 and full-year 2016.
Q4 2015
  • Revenue of $711.6 million vs. $370.2 million in Q4 2014 (consensus estimate was $648 million)
  • GAAP Gross Margin of 48.9% vs. 46.2% in Q4 2014
  • GAAP Net Income of $64.2 million vs. $39.2 million in Q4 2014
  • GAAP Diluted EPS of $0.26 vs. $0.19 in Q4 2014
  • Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Gross Margin of 48.8% vs. 45.9% in Q4 2014 (consensus estimate was 48.2%)
  • Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Net Income of $87.4 million vs. $43.8 million in Q4 2014
  • Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Diluted EPS of $0.35 vs. $0.21 in Q4 2014 (consensus estimate was $0.25)
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $125.3 million vs. $75.6 million in Q4 2014 (consensus estimate was $99.4 million)
  • Devices Sold totaled 8.2 million vs. 5.3 million in Q4 2014 (consensus estimate was 7.5 million
  • Revenue by geography: U.S. $532 million (+100%); Americas excluding U.S. $37.8 million (+76.7%); Europe, Middle East and Africa $84.8 million (+191%); APAC $56.6 million (+6%).
Full-Year 2015
  • Revenue of $1,858 million vs. $745.4 million in FY 2014
  • GAAP Gross Margin of 48.5% vs. 48.0% in FY 2014
  • GAAP Net Income of $175.7 million vs. $131.8 million in FY 2014
  • GAAP Diluted EPS of $0.75 vs. $0.63 in FY 2014
  • Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Gross Margin of 48.5% vs. 50.7% in FY 2014
  • Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Net Income of $254.1 million vs. $114.1 million in FY 2014
  • Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Diluted EPS of $1.07 vs. $0.56 in FY 2014
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $389.9 million vs. $191.0 million in FY 2014
  • Devices Sold totaled 21.4 million vs. 10.9 million in FY 2014
  • Active Users totaled 16.9 million vs. 6.7 million in FY 2014
  • Registered Device Users totaled 29.0 million vs. 11.0 million in FY 2014
Full-Year 2016 Guidance:
  • Full-year 2016 revenue in the $2.4 - $2.5 billion range (consensus estimate was $2.4 billion)
  • Full-year 2016 gross margins in the 48.5% - 49.0% range (consensus estimate was 48.5%)
  • No guidance for operating margins but the phrasing makes it sound like they will probably be either lower or flat year-over-year, due to expansion plans
  • Full-year 2016 Adjusted EBITDA in the $400 - $480 million range (consensus estimate was $463 million)
  • Full-year 2016 Adjusted EPS in the $1.08 - $1.20 range (consensus estimate was $1.14)
  • Full-year 2016 Stock-based compensation in the $85 - $95 million range
  • Full-year 2016 effective tax rate of approximately 30%
  • Fully diluted share count of 245 - 251 million shares
Q1 2016 Guidance:
  • Q1 2016 revenue in the $420 - $440 million range (consensus estimate was $484.6 million)
  • Q1 2016 Adjusted Gross margin of 46.5% (consensus estimate was 48.3%)
  • Q1 2016 Adjusted EBITDA in the $5 - $16 million range (consensus was $89.9 million)
  • Adjusted EPS in the $0.00 - $0.02 range (consensus estimate was $0.23)
  • Q1 2016 Stock-based compensation expense in the $18 - $20 million range
  • Q1 2016 tax rate of 30%
  • Fully diluted share count of 244 - 246 million shares
A transcript of today's earnings call can be found HERE.
If anyone has any questions, please feel free to contact me.
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